ESA monitors asteroid with 2032 impact risk

An asteroid that has a small chance of hitting the Earth in 2032 is being closely monitored by the European Space Agency (ESA), according to its Planetary Defence Office.

Called 'Asteroid 2024 YR4', it has an almost 99% chance of safely passing Earth on December 22, 2032, but a possible impact cannot yet be entirely ruled out.

It was first recognised as a threat in December 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. It is now moving away from Earth but will return in 2028.

“After discovery... We typically start collecting more measurements, more observations and we quickly see that the object was, let's say, having impact chances with the earth in December 2032,” Juan Luis Cano of the Planetary Defence Office said.

The density and make up of the asteroid is not known, but it is estimated to be between 40m and 90 m across and travelling at around 15 times the speed of a high velocity bullet.

"The impact velocity, which will be in the order of 17.3 kilometers per second at the moment of the possible impact," Cano said.

"The amount of energy that would be released taking into account those uncertainties would range between 5 to 50 megatons," he said.

Since early January, astronomers have been recording observations of the asteroid using telescopes around the world to try to improve our understanding of its size and trajectory.

As of January 29, 2025, ESA estimates that the probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 may impact Earth on 22 December 2032 is 1.2%.

"Let me tell you, the most likely scenario is that by the time we lose sight of the object in April this year, the impact probabilities will have lowered enough not to worry about this object anymore," Cano said.

Scientists will soon meet to discuss Earth's response if the asteroid’s impact probability remains above the 1% threshold, which could include crashing a spacecraft into it to deflect it off course.