BYD trims 2025 sales target amid slowdown
China EV giant faces weaker demand and rising competition
China’s electric-vehicle champion BYD has quietly scaled back its 2025 sales ambition, cutting an earlier target of 5.5 million vehicles by as much as 16% to an internal goal near 4.6 million units, according to sources. If confirmed, the revision would represent only about a 7% increase over last year — the slowest annual growth rate for the company since 2020 — and underscores a marked cooling in its crucial domestic market, which accounts for roughly 80% of sales.
The company’s recent results and operations reflect mounting pressure: second-quarter profit plunged roughly 30%, ending a multi‑year streak of rising earnings; production growth has stalled (July output down 0.9% year‑on‑year, August down nearly 4%); and sales of low‑priced models — the backbone of BYD’s home‑market volume — fell close to 10% in July. In response, BYD has slowed production, delayed planned capacity expansions and cut shifts at several plants as intense price competition, overcapacity, inventory accumulation and tightening rules on aggressive discounting squeeze margins.
BYD’s overseas performance offers some respite — exports roughly doubled to about 550,000 units in the first seven months of 2025, with expansion in Europe and other markets — but international growth has not fully offset the domestic slump. Analysts had forecast slightly lower targets (around 4.7–4.8 million), reflecting expectations of deceleration; BYD has not publicly confirmed figures.
The pullback signals broader headwinds for China’s EV sector: weaker consumer confidence tied to a prolonged housing downturn, fiercer competition from local rivals and an erosion of previously rapid demand growth. For BYD, the path forward will hinge on managing pricing and margins, calibrating production to reduce inventory risk, accelerating profitable overseas expansion, and potentially shifting product mix toward higher-margin models. Investors will watch upcoming quarterly results, export momentum and any revisions to capacity plans as indicators of whether BYD can restore its recent breakneck expansion or settle into steadier, slower growth.
