Museveni set for another Uganda win

Political analysts say President Yoweri Museveni’s victory is all but guaranteed as voters cast ballots in an election that could nonetheless shape Uganda’s political future. Museveni, 81, seeks a seventh term after more than four decades in power; his chief opponent is 43-year-old pop star-turned-politician Bobi Wine, who attracts strong support among younger voters and has campaigned on restoring political freedoms, tackling corruption, boosting youth employment and renegotiating oil deals. Other contenders include former opposition parliamentary leader Nandala Mafabi and ex-military chief Mugisha Muntu.

Museveni stresses his record of relative peace and economic progress, promising to push Uganda toward middle-income status through manufacturing, agricultural exports and imminent oil production. Critics and opposition figures accuse him of entrenching control over state institutions and of presiding over a climate that curbs dissent; the government denies widespread rights abuses.

The run-up to the vote saw heavy security deployments, restrictions on opposition activity and limits on media access. Hundreds of opposition supporters were detained and at least one person killed in pre-election incidents; previous contests have featured lethal crackdowns, most notably more than 50 deaths around the 2021 election following protests after Wine’s arrest. On election day, long queues appeared at some polling stations while delays and logistical problems were reported elsewhere; the electoral commission said voting was largely proceeding as planned, while opposition leaders alleged deliberate slowdowns in their strongholds. Independent verification has been hampered by constrained observation.

Observers and rights groups describe the electoral environment as highly restricted, citing limits on campaigning, civic space and media freedom. Western governments and regional bodies urged restraint and respect for democratic norms. Analysts say a key indicator will be Museveni’s margin of victory: his 58% share in 2021 was his lowest, and any further erosion could weaken his standing amid speculation about succession. Much attention centers on whether Museveni is positioning his son, military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as a successor—a move that has stirred controversy within the ruling NRM and prompted jockeying among party heavyweights.