Oil prices edge higher on U.S. draw
A bigger-than-expected crude decline lifts prices as diplomacy tempers further gains
Oil prices inched higher after industry data showed a larger‑than‑expected draw in US crude inventories, while tentative progress in Russia‑Ukraine diplomacy limited further gains by easing some supply‑risk concerns.
Brent traded around $62.46 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate about $58.59, each up roughly 0.1% from the prior close. The American Petroleum Institute reported US commercial crude stocks fell by about 2.48 million barrels last week versus market forecasts near a 1.9 million‑barrel decline, signaling either stronger refinery demand or increased exports and tightening domestic availability. Traders awaited the official Energy Information Administration figures for confirmation.
The inventory draw provided near‑term support for prices, as tighter apparent supplies typically prompt buying after a period of downward pressure tied to weak growth signals and demand worries. Analysts noted that the drop could reflect higher refinery throughput ahead of winter or logistical flows that have reduced onshore stockpiles.
At the same time, diplomatic developments between Russia and Ukraine restrained upside. Kremlin adviser Yury Ushakov said talks involving President Vladimir Putin and representatives of US President Donald Trump addressed four documents aimed at a potential settlement, describing the exchanges as “useful, constructive and informative” while noting Putin had reservations about some proposals. Reports of progress reduce the geopolitical risk premium by lowering the likelihood of major supply disruptions tied to the conflict.
Still, risks remain. Putin accused Ukraine of “piracy” in the Black Sea over attacks on oil tankers and warned of expanded strikes on Ukrainian ports and vessels entering them, underscoring how quickly tensions could flare and affect shipments. Markets continue to weigh such downside supply threats alongside demand-side uncertainties.
Longer‑term headwinds persist: forecasts for sluggish demand growth through 2026, OPEC+ production plans, and elevated global inventories temper expectations for a sustained rally. For now, the market treated the API’s larger‑than‑expected draw as a short‑term bullish signal, while diplomatic signals and structural factors capped gains and kept traders cautious about the durability of any price recovery.
