Museveni son seen as successor

Ugandan security chiefs and political insiders say Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the outspoken son of President Yoweri Museveni, has emerged as the leading figure to succeed the 81-year-old leader after a tightly contested election that saw a sharp security response to opposition activity. Sources said Kainerugaba, who commands the army’s land forces and leads the elite Special Forces Command, played a central role in measures that helped secure Museveni’s seventh term, including ordering a four-day internet blackout and mobilising police and troops to break up opposition rallies. Close aides say those moves aimed to prevent sabotage; critics and human rights observers say they suppressed dissent.

Opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, known as Bobi Wine, alleges the vote was rigged and remains in hiding after a campaign marred by detentions, disrupted rallies and reports of security forces opening fire. Supporters of the opposition were targeted in the run-up to and during voting; Kainerugaba later boasted that 30 members of Wine’s party had been killed and about 2,000 "hooligans" arrested, figures the party has not immediately addressed.

Kainerugaba’s public persona—marked by combative social media posts that have included threats and controversial remarks—belies accounts from associates who describe him as more measured in private. Since declaring in 2023 that he was "tired of waiting" to lead, he has consolidated power by sidelining rivals within the ruling National Resistance Movement and the military, overseeing large pay raises for rank-and-file soldiers, pushing through promotions and retirements, and launching an anti-corruption drive. Those moves, plus his closeness to influential figures such as Museveni’s brother Salim Saleh and a long-standing relationship with Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, have strengthened his standing among key security and political actors.

Despite unease among some veteran party and military figures over a potential father-to-son handover, several people involved in succession talks say Kainerugaba’s position is stronger than ever. Constitutional protocol would see the vice-president assume power temporarily if Museveni dies in office, with an election to follow; family allies are expected to play decisive roles in any transition. Observers warn, however, that a dynastic transfer would carry risks of popular backlash in a country whose population skews very young and where many resent the prospect of leadership passing within a single family.