China’s economy grows 4.8% in third quarter

China's economy expanded 4.8% year‑on‑year in the third quarter, official data showed, matching analyst forecasts and underscoring persistent headwinds from a prolonged property slump, weak domestic consumption and heightened trade tensions with the United States. Quarter‑on‑quarter GDP rose 1.1%, slightly above expectations and a touch stronger than the prior quarter’s revised 1.0% gain. Beijing is aiming for full‑year growth of around 5%.

Monthly and sector readings were mixed. Industrial output accelerated, rising 6.5% year‑on‑year in September—well above forecasts—while retail sales grew 3.0%, in line with expectations but slower than August. Fixed‑asset investment weakened further through September, down 0.5% year‑to‑date, and property investment plunged 13.9%, deepening the drag from the housing market. Those trends highlight tepid domestic demand even as export resilience supports manufacturing activity.

Economists and market strategists said the topline GDP print was broadly in line with expectations but still underwhelming in terms of underlying momentum. Some analysts expect targeted fiscal measures rather than broad stimulus, pointing to recent policy tools and a RMB 500 billion fiscal package aimed at shoring up public investment. Officials will likely lean on such targeted interventions while seeking to preserve policy space for future shocks.

Trade tensions with Washington remain a key downside risk: recent moves on rare earth export controls and threats of higher U.S. tariffs add uncertainty for exporters, though both sides have signalled some readiness to de-escalate. Commentators noted that resilient exports may partly reflect front‑loading of overseas orders, a pattern that could unwind.

Policy watchers expect the fourth quarter to be investment‑heavy and consumption‑light, with authorities deploying finance tools and government bond issuance to support infrastructure and public projects. While the annual growth target appears achievable given year‑to‑date performance, several forecasters warned downside risks for Q4 and into 2026, projecting slower expansion next year—around the mid‑4% range—absent stronger rebounds in consumption and investment.

The data underline a familiar picture for China’s economy: modest recovery from the post‑pandemic slump but limited momentum, an ongoing property sector contraction, and vulnerability to external shocks that keep pressure on policymakers to calibrate further support.