Modi Visits Russia Amid Ukraine War Dynamics

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to begin a two-day visit to Russia, his first since the invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the complex dynamics between long-standing allies amid global geopolitical shifts. The visit, which includes a meeting with President Vladimir Putin, comes at a time when Russia's ties with India have been complicated by its growing closeness to China, India's main rival.

India has maintained a neutral stance on the Ukraine conflict, neither condemning nor condoning Russia's actions. This approach has bolstered Putin's efforts to counter Western influence in global affairs. 

While India has become a key buyer of Russian oil following Western sanctions, purchasing over 40% of its oil imports from Russia, it has also been diversifying its defense procurements. Traditionally dependent on Russian military supplies, India is now looking to other countries like the U.S., Israel, France, and Italy for defense equipment.

The visit is expected to focus on trade development, particularly the proposed maritime corridor between Chennai and Vladivostok. India-Russia trade has seen a significant increase, reaching nearly $65 billion in the 2023-24 financial year, primarily due to energy cooperation. However, there's a notable trade imbalance, with Indian imports from Russia far exceeding its exports.

Modi's trip also comes in the context of India's increasing estrangement from forums where Russia and China play prominent roles, as evidenced by Modi's absence from the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kazakhstan.

The meeting is likely to address defense cooperation, a priority area given that 60% of India's military equipment is still of Russian origin. Both countries are expected to conclude a military logistics agreement to facilitate more defense exchanges.