OECD lifts china's 2025 growth forecast
Policy support lifts demand as the outlook strengthens
The OECD raised its 2025 growth forecast for China to 5.0% from 4.9% in its latest Economic Outlook, marking the third upgrade for the country this year and signalling growing confidence in China’s near‑term resilience. The organisation credited expansionary fiscal measures and targeted policies—such as trade‑in programs for cars and household appliances and support for large‑scale equipment renewal—with bolstering incomes, lifting consumption and aiding export‑oriented manufacturing. Tamas Hajba, head of the OECD’s Beijing office, highlighted two defining features of the current trajectory: “resilience” in the face of external trade pressures and tariffs, and “transformation” as China advances green and digital transitions while restructuring industry.
The report points to stronger‑than‑expected domestic demand, looser monetary conditions and steady export performance as key drivers behind the upward revision, noting that stimulus and sectoral investment have helped rebound production and services. China’s expanding role in technology supply chains, including AI‑related industries, has also helped offset weaker global demand and geopolitical strains. The revised forecast aligns closely with Beijing’s growth target and is seen by analysts as evidence of gradual stabilization after earlier volatility in real estate, investment and household spending.
Despite the upgrade, the OECD warned of persistent risks: uneven urban‑rural growth, pockets of weakness in the property sector, cautious consumer sentiment among younger households, and external headwinds such as elevated trade barriers and shifting supply chains. The organisation stressed that sustaining momentum will require ongoing policy coordination and reforms to boost productivity and private‑sector activity. Still, the higher projection is viewed as a positive signal for the global economy: with China accounting for a substantial share of world growth, stronger performance there could support international trade and commodity markets. The OECD concluded that while vulnerabilities remain, China’s economic outlook appears more resilient than previously assessed, and continued policy support could help maintain growth near the 5% level through next year.
